Special Representative
GUWAHATI (ASSAM), April 05 2021: There has not been any wave for any of the parties or the alliances in the fray in the current Assam Assembly Election 2021.
It is a different matter that the ruling alliance led by the BJP as well as the opposition Grand Alliance stitched by the Congress, have been claiming that they will win 100-plus seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly this time.
Already first and the second phases of the election in Assam were held on March 27 (47 LACs) and April 1 (39 LACs) respectively and the third and final phase of election to rest 40 legislative assembly constituencies (LACs) is scheduled for April 6.
Total 2,33,74, 087 voters including 1,18,23, 286 males and 1,15, 50,403 females, are expected to exercise their franchise in Assam selection this time. Voters’ turnout was recorded at 76.9 % in the first phase polling while it was 80.96 % in the second phase polling.
The Assembly election in Assam this time is being fought basically between the ‘Mitrajot’ (alliance) led by the ruling BJP and ‘Mahajot’ (Grand Alliance) led by Congress. Besides, there are a couple of newly formed regional political parties- Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dal which have struck an understanding between themselves.
The ‘Mitrajot’ comprises of the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and BJP’s new ally, United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) which is a regional party formed recently in Bodo tribe heartland in Assam. The BJP recently fought and won the election to Bodoland Territorial Autonomous Council (BTC) in alliance with the UPPL.
The ‘Mahajot’ (Grand Alliance) comprises of Congress, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and Left Parties including CPI and CPI(M).
The AIUDF is known as the party with main vote base among immigrant Muslim voters. These immigrant Muslim voters in Assam are basically those people who had migrated from erstwhile East Pakistan (present Bangladesh) before March 25, 1971.
These Muslim voters were traditionally a support base for the Congress till the AIUDF came into being in the state in 2005. Since, then their votes were shared between the Congress and the AIUDF in all past elections since 2006 till 2016 to the advantage of parties like AGP and BJP because of absence of poll understanding between the two parties.
However, Congress and AIUDF have forged alliance this election to arrest division of votes of immigrant Muslims who can decide the fate of poll candidates in about 40 Assembly constituencies in the state. It is certain that they will never vote for the BJP and its allies. So the Grand Alliance stitched by the Congress and AIUDF this election posed quite a challenge to the BJP and its allies.
Most of these 40 constituencies are going for polls in the third phase on April 6 and this phase will be crucial for the Grand Alliance.
The Congress-AIUDF alliance will definitely rob BJP of some of the 15 seats in Barak Valley region of Assam where the BJP had won eight seats in 2016 basically because of division of votes between Congress and the AIUDF then. Election to Barak Valley seats were held on April 1 last in the second phase.
One of the constituents of the Grand Alliance, BPF was an ally of BJP in 2016 Assam election which was fought amid a clear wave for the BJP (Narendra Modi) and before that the BPF was with the Congress. Again BPF came back to Congress’ fold this election after it had been rejected by the BJP in the recent election to Bodoland Territorial Autonomous Council (BTC).
The BPF had won 17 seats out of the 40 seats in the BTC and emerged as the single largest party but lost power to BJP-UPPL alliance by a whisker. The BPF had won all the 12 Assembly seats in Bodoland areas in 2016 Assembly polls. Election to Bodoland area Assembly seats were held in the second phase and performance of the BPF will be crucial for the Grand Alliance. If the BPF manages to retain seats, it will advantage Grand Alliance and if the new party UPPL puts up a starling performance it will be advantage ‘Mitrajot’.
For the BJP and its allies in Mitrajot, the outcome of the first phase election to 47 constituencies mostly from the indigenous communities and tea tribes dominated eastern Assam area is considered most crucial for retaining power.
In 2016, the BJP had won 60 seats on its own and about 40 of those are from eastern Assam areas where the Congress’ traditional voter bank among the tea workers had swung heavily toward the saffron party in that election.
Though the ruling BJP during the last five years of its rule, facilitated opening of bank accounts in the name of tea workers, transferred cash to their accounts on at least two occasions under special government welfare schemes, initiated steps to set up high schools in tea gardens, improved healthcare facility for tea workers to some extent, it failed to fulfill its 2016 promise to hike the wakes of tea workers to Rs 351 per day. This failure may put the BJP in a disadvantage in the tea belt this election.
Moreover, indigenous communities in eastern Assam are opposed to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019 enacted by the BJP government in the Centre and this may lead to some degree of erosion of the BJP vote base among indigenous communities this election especially when the Opposition Congress has promised not to allow implementation CAA in Assam if voted to power.
Congress’ poll truck with the AIUDF which virtually has no base in eastern Assam constituencies, will work against the party in that area where polls were held on March 27.
No wonder, given the ground situation this time BJP top leaders including Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have made several rounds of electioneering in Assam this election unleashing a high-voltage saffron campaign which Congress has tried to negotiate with repeated campaigns by Gandhi siblings, Priyanka and Rahul.
So, in absence of any wave, both the warring alliances are keeping their fingers crossed in Assam this election.