Commemorating 150 years of the IMD: India has come a long way
Dr PS Goel
IN JULY 2006, when the Ministry of Earth Sciences came into being, India was the first country to have a dedicated ministry for earth system sciences. The Ministry of Earth Sciences was mandated to generate knowledge and provide services pertaining to earth system sciences in the country: for the weather, climate, ocean and coastal state, hydrology, seismology and natural hazards; marine living and non-living resources; and the Earth's poles (Arctic, Antarctic, and the Himalayas) for public benefit. The Ministry of Earth Sciences was created by reorganising the Department of Ocean Development vide a Presidential notification by the Government of India.
Persuaded by Professor Rodham Narsimha, citing the need to improve weather forecasts by treating the ocean and atmosphere as a coupled system and also adsorbing solid Earth and cryosphere, I agreed to spearhead the meticulous task of formulating the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Before I took charge of the Department of Ocean Development in July 2005, I was with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) Satellite Centre, Bengaluru. Then, when the Ministry of Earth Sciences came into being in 2006, I was (officially) the first Secretary to execute the mammoth task of integrating atmospheric sciences into the ocean sciences component in the overall institutional framework of the ministry. At that time, the inclusion of the CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography, Goa and the marine wing of the Geological Survey of India into the Ministry of Earth Sciences was also on the anvil but was deferred to enhance focus on setting up of the Earth Commission on the lines of Space Commission and Atomic Energy Commission. After elaborate interministerial consultations, the Cabinet approved the formation of the Ministry of Earth Sciences and the Earth Commission on July 12, 2006. Earth Commission worked well with four successful meetings, two of which were held in the Prime Minister's Office. Unfortunately, the Cabinet declared that the Earth Commission was not approved after one year of fruitful functioning due to a minor miss in drafting its cabinet note. Former Secretaries of the Ministry of Earth Sciences and distinguished earth sciences experts have felt the need to set up an Earth Commission to effectively address climate change and changing world order due to ice melt in the Arctic and Antarctic. 
In 1982, the Department of Ocean Development was primarily created to mark India's presence in the Antarctic. This also became the precursor to establishing the National Center for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) in Goa, which is India's sole scientific institution that facilitates Indian scientific expeditions to Antarctica, the Arctic and Himalayas, setting up of and maintaining Indian research stations in these geographies, and for ensuring country's strategic presence and activities in the Earth's poles. Dr SZ Qasim, the founder Secretary of the Department of Ocean Development (erstwhile Ministry of Earth Sciences), led the first Indian Scientific Expedition to the Antarctic in 1981-82 and set up the first Indian research station in the Antarctic named 'Dakshin Gangotri' in 1983. Fast forward to the late 1990s, the Department of Ocean Development took the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), Chennai and the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad, under its realm, underscoring the vital importance of ocean technology and ocean-based services of in the economy and lives of the people, which was strongly advocated by the then Secretary of Department of Ocean Development, Dr A E Muthunayagam. His predecessor and successor, Dr VK Gaur and Dr HK Gupta, were renowned seismologists who held prestigious positions at the National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad.
The India Meteorology Department (IMD) was brought under the Ministry of Earth Sciences only in 2006, albeit being one of the oldest departments of the Government of India. Set up in 1875 (mainly to understand the Indian monsoon) and headed by the Britishers until India's independence, IMD is celebrating 150 years of service on January 14, 2025. IMD remains the foremost institution touching the everyday lives of several Indians and impacting the lives and livelihoods of lakhs of farmers on an everyday basis. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida, set up in 1962 and 1988, respectively, to augment the scientific activities and services of IMD, are under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, 2006 onwards. IMD, IITM, and NCMRWF were formerly under the Department of Science and Technology.
After India's independence in 1947, IMD was moved to Civil Aviation, and its cadre (including scientific posts) was established under the Union Public Services Commission (UPSC). This was because IMD was considered a service unit only, providing weather-related briefings to pilots. This was when the scientific character of IMD experienced a significant setback, the only respite being that its interaction with bodies like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) continued. In 1985, IMD was transferred to the Department of Science and Technology under the Ministry of Science and Technology, where it continued reliance on conventional techniques and human expertise for providing weather and climate forecasts. IMD's amalgamation into the Ministry of Earth Sciences in 2006 was a landmark decision on several fronts. More focus was on improving the observation network and infrastructure (setting up more and improved Doppler Weather Radars, Automatic Weather Stations, and Radiosonde, connecting data flow to central processing stations at Delhi and Pune) and adopting a physics-based numerical modelling approach for forecasts. Moreover, it was re-moulded into a scientific unit, meaning the posts were of a scientific cadre. The changes resulted in improved forecasts of weather, cyclones, and extreme weather events, recognised as amongst the best in the world.
Future Directions
India is an agrarian society with more than 70% share from smallholder farmers and an enormous utility for timely and accurate weather-related information. The last ten years have witnessed tremendous progress in improving weather and climate services and infrastructure. The launch of Mission Mausam in 2024 aims to make us even bigger and better in the coming two years. The country's observation network, data resolution, information dissemination, and lead time are all aimed at becoming more useful for our people. We must continue to strive to make our agromet services more farmer-specific and precise and boost forecasting and mitigation capabilities for events such as hail storms, frosting in planes, extreme weather-based landslides, flooding, etc. We are also setting up advanced facilities to study and test innovative ways of weather management, such as cloud seeding for artificial rain in water-deficit areas.
Weather is a chaotic system, so long-term forecasts (particularly monsoon forecasts four to six months ahead) can only be done through numerical modelling and artificial intelligence (AI). Studying changes due to global warming also requires generic AI techniques. IMD has a vast database, which could prove to be an asset for AI-based forecasting. Ministry's high-performance supercomputer was upgraded to ~22 petaflops (in combined capacity) in 2024 (from ~6 petaflops), and resolution has improved from 70 kms to 12 kms in the last decade. However, higher computing prowess and improved resolution are only a fraction of the aspects of weather forecasting. The resolution has to be matched with the expanding observation network.
For this, the Ministry of Earth Sciences/IMD has planned the installation of a dense network of Doppler Weather Radars, radiosonde, AWS, etc. Still, again, these are on land only, implying that ocean observations compatible with the desired resolution for the model to give reliable results are to be set up in the immediate future. The ministry can also best utilise the next big thing in computers: a Quantum Computer, 50Qbit capacity of which can decode encryption in seconds, which a conventional supercomputer would take billions of years to execute. Ministry of Earth Sciences should be envisaged as an active member of the National Quantum Mission under the Prime Minister's Science and Technology Innovation Advisory Council (PM-STIAC), which is driven by the office of the Principal Scientific Advisor (PSA) to the Government of India.
With advancements in infrastructure and computing, it is equally important to continue to enhance satellite-based observations to improve weather and climate services. There remains a need for more satellites in the lower orbits with high-end sensors like multi-channel profilers, microwave sounders, scatterometers, ocean colour monitors, etc. for weather and climate-related observations. Therefore, ISRO and the Ministry of Earth Sciences must continue to work closely. Also, ISRO's role could widen from that of a satellite provider to that of a partner in satellite meteorology. A working group between the Ministry of Earth Sciences and ISRO on the lines of subcommittees of the National Natural Resource Management System would be beneficial. UN bodies, such as WMO, should facilitate the development of a cooperative and comprehensive framework of standard specifications, launching satellites, and data sharing. Investments in capacity building and human resource development should remain at the pole point.
The 150 years of IMD, celebrated through a slew of activities with public outreach and engagement as the core motto, spanning the entire past year, is a reminder of our indelible spirit, rich history, and zest to cater to our people. We continue to live up to our aim of S3: Science for Service of our people for the benefit of the Society.
(The writer is former Secretary to the Government of India, Ministry of Earth Sciences)
January 13, 2025